Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Addressing inflation

Measuring inflation requires finding objective ways of separating out changes in nominal prices from other influences related to real activity. In the simplest possible case, if the price of a 10 oz. can of corn changes from $0.90 to $1.00 over the course of a year, with no change in quality, then this price change represents inflation. But we are usually more interested in knowing how the overall cost of living changes, and therefore instead of looking at the change in price of one good, we want to know how the price of a large 'basket' of goods and services changes. This is the purpose of looking at a price index, which is a weighted average of many prices. The weights in the Consumer Price Index, for example, represent the fraction of spending that typical consumers spend on each type of goods (using data collected by surveying households).Inflation measures are often modified over time, either for the relative weight of goods in the basket, or in the way in which goods from the present are compared with goods from the past. This includes hedonic adjustments and “reweighing” as well as using chained measures of inflation. As with many economic numbers, inflation numbers are often seasonally adjusted in order to differentiate expected cyclical cost increases, versus changes in the economy. Inflation numbers are averaged or otherwise subjected to statistical techniques in order to remove statistical noise and volatility of individual prices. Finally, when looking at inflation, economic institutions sometimes only look at subsets or special indices. One common set is inflation excluding food and energy, which is often called “core inflation”.

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